Model-generated bracket using 5,000 Monte Carlo simulations with team-level advanced stats. Every matchup decided by win probability.
| Team | R32 | S16 | E8 | F4 | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) Duke | 96.2% | 87.1% | 77.3% | 68.5% | 47.3% |
| (6) Louisville | 81.7% | 60.3% | 47.3% | 8.3% | 3.9% |
| (5) St. John's | 83.4% | 64.4% | 9.1% | 5.8% | 2.4% |
| (2) UConn | 90.1% | 40.1% | 12.0% | 2.5% | 1.3% |
| (3) Michigan St | 84.7% | 25.8% | 20.4% | 3.7% | 1.3% |
| (7) UCLA | 81.7% | 49.7% | 10.9% | 1.4% | 0.5% |
| (8) Ohio State | 76.0% | 7.3% | 5.3% | 3.3% | 1.0% |
| (4) Kansas | 82.6% | 21.8% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 0.6% |
| Team | R32 | S16 | E8 | F4 | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) Arizona | 95.3% | 82.4% | 72.0% | 59.9% | 13.4% |
| (3) Gonzaga | 88.9% | 37.9% | 31.4% | 8.9% | 1.3% |
| (6) BYU | 78.3% | 47.6% | 34.5% | 5.8% | 0.6% |
| (5) Wisconsin | 79.2% | 53.9% | 8.2% | 5.4% | 0.5% |
| (8) Villanova | 62.8% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 0.4% |
| (4) Arkansas | 86.4% | 28.2% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 0.4% |
| (2) Purdue | 92.3% | 40.0% | 12.7% | 3.1% | 0.5% |
| (7) Miami | 76.4% | 45.2% | 9.2% | 1.6% | 0.2% |
| Team | R32 | S16 | E8 | F4 | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) Florida | 96.4% | 82.8% | 67.0% | 52.6% | 6.3% |
| (3) Illinois | 93.4% | 81.3% | 69.9% | 19.0% | 2.3% |
| (5) Vanderbilt | 79.2% | 63.5% | 15.7% | 10.8% | 1.3% |
| (8) Clemson | 63.1% | 9.7% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 0.2% |
| (6) North Carolina | 86.7% | 21.0% | 4.6% | 2.9% | 0.2% |
| (4) Nebraska | 87.7% | 13.9% | 10.4% | 2.3% | 0.3% |
| (2) Houston | 87.2% | 28.8% | 6.7% | 1.7% | 0.2% |
| (7) Saint Mary's | 79.8% | 56.4% | 7.2% | 1.1% | 0.1% |
| Team | R32 | S16 | E8 | F4 | Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (1) Michigan | 96.8% | 87.2% | 77.5% | 67.8% | 9.5% |
| (5) Texas Tech | 84.1% | 63.0% | 9.2% | 7.0% | 0.3% |
| (6) Tennessee | 81.1% | 58.4% | 42.5% | 6.9% | 0.2% |
| (4) Alabama | 86.6% | 22.3% | 3.1% | 2.3% | 0.0% |
| (3) Virginia | 84.4% | 25.9% | 18.8% | 2.9% | 0.1% |
| (2) Iowa State | 93.2% | 39.8% | 12.9% | 2.7% | 0.2% |
| (7) Kentucky | 73.5% | 45.3% | 11.7% | 1.7% | 0.0% |
| (8) Georgia | 70.1% | 7.5% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 0.1% |
5,000 complete tournament simulations were run using our NCAAM prediction model. Each game outcome was determined probabilistically based on the model's win probability (not always picking the favorite). The "Recommended Bracket" picks the model's favored team in each matchup, with one strategic 1-seed bust: Illinois over Florida in the South Elite 8 (Illinois had 19% Final Four probability vs Florida's 52.6%, but the model gives Illinois a strong 69.9% Elite 8 rate and the head-to-head is competitive). Advancement probabilities show how often each team reached that round across all 5,000 simulations.
Generated March 19, 2026 · ParlayGenIQ NCAAM Model · Based on 2025-26 season advanced stats