March Madness 2026

The Model-Driven
Bracket Intelligence

3 years of backtested First Round picks. 56.7% ATS across 104 graded games. No bracket narratives — just edge, efficiency, and mid-major value.

56.7%
First Round ATS Win%
59-45
3-Year ATS Record
71.8%
Outright Accuracy
104
Graded Games
Selection Sunday Countdown
--
Days
:
--
Hours
:
--
Min
:
--
Sec
March 15, 2026  ·  Bracket releases ~6 PM ET  ·  Picks go live immediately
⚙️
How the Model Works
What makes tournament picks different from regular season
🏟
Neutral Site Override
Every tournament game is played at a neutral site. The model strips out all home court advantage (≈3.5 pts) from every prediction — something most public lines fail to fully account for.
📊
Efficiency-First Ratings
Picks are driven by adjusted efficiency margin (adj. em), four factors (eFG%, TO%, OR%, FTR), and tempo. Not seedings. Not TV appearances. Not which coach went to the Final Four.
🎯
Mid-Major Value Finder
Public money hammers Duke, Kentucky, and Kansas regardless of efficiency. This inflates lines against mid-major opponents. Our model prices teams the same regardless of conference brand — finding the spread value the market misses.
🔢
Calibrated Edges
Raw edges are calibrated against 800+ games of historical performance. We know which edge sizes and matchup types have been reliable — and which haven’t. Only picks with validated historical backing reach our board.
📈
Backtested Performance — First Round Only
Verified against TheOddsAPI historical spreads · ATS only (O/U model is weaker, not featured)
2023 First Round 66.7% ATS
ATS Record 20-10
Outright 26/34 = 76.5%
O/U Record 11-20 (35.5%)
Best result Mid-major dogs covered 7/10
2024 First Round 52.8% ATS
ATS Record 19-17
Outright 24/37 = 64.9%
O/U Record 17-19 (47.2%)
Notes Still above -110 breakeven
2025 First Round 52.6% ATS
ATS Record 20-18
Outright 29/39 = 74.4%
O/U Record 23-15 (60.5%)
Notes Strong outright, flat on ATS
3-Year Combined 56.7% ATS
ATS Record 59-45
Outright 79/110 = 71.8%
Breakeven (@ -110) 52.4%
Edge above breakeven +4.3%
🌿
Historical Seed Matchup ATS Rates
Public data from ~40 years of First Round · Brackets page focuses on highest-value matchups
Matchup Fav covers (historical) Dog covers (historical) Our model signal Betting angle
1 vs 16
~75%
~25%
Fade dog Rare value on 16-seed; only if model shows deficit under 20
2 vs 15
~60%
~40%
Model-dependent Check model spread; 15-seed covers if adj. em gap is under 12
5 vs 12
~48%
~52%
Known edge Best angle. 12-seed covers at historically above-breakeven rate. Public overweights 5-seed brand.
6 vs 11
~50%
~50%
Model-driven value First Four winners often undervalued. Model catches efficiency gaps in tight matchups.
3 vs 14
~62%
~38%
Split 3-seed generally covers, but check model edge. 14-seeds with high eFG% can surprise.
4 vs 13
~55%
~45%
Split 13-seed covers ~45% historically — above breakeven if model confirms value.
7 vs 10
~50%
~50%
Pure model Near-coinflip historically. Only bet when model edge is 4+ pts.
8 vs 9
~51%
~49%
Pure model Closest matchups. Model finds efficiency edges others miss. Only bet 5+ pt model edge.
🏆
Conference Intelligence
How conferences have performed vs the spread in our model — focus on First Round
SEC
Deep tournament runs, overvalued spreads
Fade when heavily favored
Big Ten
Strong defensive efficiency, reliable ATS
Big 12
High pace, volatile — model handles well
ACC
Brand premium inflates lines (Duke, UNC)
Check model edge first
Mountain West
Mid-major value — consistent undervaluation
WCC / A-10
High-efficiency mid-majors, soft public image
Big East
Defensive-first, low-tempo — lines are tight
Trust model edge
Pac-12 / Big West
Small conferences, efficiency is real but ignored
The core thesis: In March Madness, TV viewership and brand recognition drive public betting more than any other time of year. When Kentucky plays a 12-seed from the Mountain West, the public hammers Kentucky — regardless of both teams' efficiency ratings. Our model prices the Mountain West team at fair value. That gap between public price and fair price is our edge. It showed up in 2023 (66.7% ATS), held in 2024 and 2025 (both above breakeven). The thesis is intact.
🏀
2026 Interactive Bracket
Click a team to advance them · Win probs calculated live from model efficiency ratings
Loading model projections...
🏀
2026 First Round ATS Picks
Sorted by tier, then edge · Model-calibrated · ATS only
🔒

ATS picks unlock after Selection Sunday, March 15, 2026.
Check back after the bracket is released.

Methodology & Disclaimer. Picks are generated by an XGBoost model trained on NCAAM regular season data with neutral-site override applied for all tournament games. Edges are calibrated against 800+ games of historical performance. Backtest results use actual historical spreads from TheOddsAPI and actual game scores. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Bet responsibly and within your means. ATS results shown exclude pushes. O/U picks are not featured (model shows below-breakeven performance on tournament totals across the 3-year sample). First Round picks only — model confidence decreases significantly in later rounds as the field narrows to all power conference teams.